Climate extreme event attribution using multivariate peaks-over-thresholds modeling and counterfactual theory
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Causal Counterfactual Theory for the Attribution of Weather and Climate- Related Events
AFFILIATIONS: HAnnArt—IFAECI, CNRS/CONICET/UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina; PeArl—Computer Science Department, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California; OttO—Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; nAveAu—LSCE, CNRS/CEA, Gif-surYvette, France; GHil—École Normale Supérieure, Paris, France, and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences...
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15 صفحه اولAttribution of Weather and Climate-Related Extreme Events
Unusual or extreme weather and climate-related events are of great public concern and interest, yet there are often conflicting messages from scientists about whether such events can be linked to climate change. There is clear evidence that climate has changed as a result of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions, and that across the globe some aspects of extremes have changed as a result. But ...
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Extreme weather and climate-related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes in their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there is a clear interest from outside the climate science community in the extent to which recent damaging extreme events can be linked to human-induced c...
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The extent to which a given extreme weather or climate event is attributable to anthropogenic climate change is a question of considerable public interest. From a scientific perspective, the question can be framed in various ways, and the answer depends very much on the framing. One such framing is a risk-based approach, which answers the question probabilistically, in terms of a change in like...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: The Annals of Applied Statistics
سال: 2020
ISSN: 1932-6157
DOI: 10.1214/20-aoas1355